Does Tom Brady Struggle vs Rex Ryan?

In the lead up to the Patriots first divisional matchup of the 2015 season there has been a lot of talk about Rex Ryan’s history against the Patriots.

Many have said that Rex has had more success against Brady and the Pats compared to other opponents.

It’s true that Rex has gotten the better of the Patriots three times in the regular season, and had one huge win in the playoffs over the Brady bunch.

It’s also true that the Patriots have won nine of 12 regular season games vs Rex’s old team.

The real question is, however, statistically speaking does Rex slow down the Patriots high power offense more than other teams?

So in order to make this easy, I’ve created these somewhat complex boards:

Since Rex Became Head Coach of NYJ in 2009

 

  • 28-8 vs the AFC East in regular season

 

Tom Brady vs AFC East

Since 2009

                              Jets       MIA        Bills    

W/L                      9-3           9-3           10-2

Pass YPG           265.6      282.9       253.2   

Comp %               59.9         61.9         63.4 

TD                       21            20             28   

INT                      6             8               9   

Passer Rating    91.4       93.1          99.1    

PPG                    27.3      29.3           32.2   

 

Tom Brady vs Non-divisional Opponents

Since 2009

                         Outside Division

Win %                  0.75

Pass YPG           286.5

TD/game             2.1

INT/game           0.56

Passer Rating    102.3

PPG                    31.0   

 

Now things are made more difficult by the fact that the Patriots and Brady have fared very well against just about everyone, including Rex.

Having said that, it does appear that Rex has a bit of a negative effect on Brady’s numbers, especially when you look at the all important points per game stat.

You can throw for as many yards and completions as you want, but at the end of the day it’s about putting points on the board.

It’s also important to note that Ryan had an elite defense in his first few seasons with the Jets.

Through his first three seasons as head coach, the Jets allowed just 14.8 points per game, good for 4th-fewest in the NFL.

Against the Patriots, however, they gave up 27.6 through his first three seasons as head coach.

The Bills stuck it to the AFC runner ups in Week 1, and pressured Andrew Luck for four quarters.

Luck was pressured 17 times vs the Bills in Week 1, and was just 5-14 (35.7%) on throws under pressure.

The Colts have a very good group of receivers, and a pair of decent tight ends, but have been shaky along the offensive line for pretty much all of Andrew Luck’s career.

Ryan will have a number of exotic blitzes dialed up for Sunday, and blocking up front will be the key to this game.

The young Patriots O-Line kept Tom Brady upright pretty consistently against the Steelers, but will have a much tougher challenge on Sunday.