ProFootballCentral.com

By PFC Writer Daniel Johns

Well many things can happen once your picking in your live fantasy draft.  Usually it’s much more entertaining if you play with friends or co-workers.  There’s a different level of competition and trash-talking that goes into it, rather than facing a bunch of unknown people out in the world, who could be age 14 to age 60 you just don’t know.  There is also a much higher risk of people in a normal public league to just be there for the draft and then entirely stop checking and/or updating their team.  So that’s why I keep it fun and usually create two different yahoo leagues with a group of people I know and battle it out every year to see who owns those all important “fantasy bragging rights”.     

No matter if you join a public, join a custom or create your own fantasy football league, you must pay attention to the settings.  You tend you always want the touchdowns to be set at 6 points (that’s passing, catching and running for TD’s).  Yards matter to and even sometimes having .5 a completion or 1 point per catch, adds more points per week in a fantasy league.  Be aware of when the playoffs start (whether it’s week 15 or 16 and when the fantasy Super Bowl will be held for ex/ week 16 or week 17?)  All these little things matter as you help create your team through the draft, free agents and trading.

One of the first rules in drafting your fantasy team is the hand-cuffing rule.  I usually never do this myself, but still many fantasy experts go over this year in and year out, reiterating that you should have an insurance plan in-case one of your hot shot running backs goes down to an injury.  In other words, a good rule of thumb would be to trade the back up RB on the same team as the starting RB you drafted first.  You don’t have to do this with all the RB’s you draft, in fact only one or two at the most, should you perform this fantasy strategy.

Here are a few running back hand-cuffs you should draft, if need me. 

           1.         Adrian Peterson  –  Chester Taylor      MIN

            Well if you have one of the top two picks in this years fantasy draft, its likely your going to land Adrian Peterson on your team.  We all know how immensely talented he is, but he does come with a bit of an injury bug problem.  Not to mention he splits carries with his teammate and back up Chester Taylor.  Even with the breakout rookie year, his counter part Taylor still rushed for 844 yards and 7 touch downs.  Remember Taylor was picked up in the 2006 off-season to be their main running back that was before they knew they’d get to draft AP; so both should still be continued to be used a lot in an offense that is heavy on the run.  So by drafting Peterson it may be a good idea to take Taylor as well, as maybe your 3rd, 4th or even 5th running back in the later rounds of the draft.

2.                                                Larry Johnson –  Jamaal Charles       KC

It’s hard to believe you take any RB in Kansas City besides Johnson, after he rushed 416 times in 2006.  The question is though who will be the primary back?  Right now currently listed as the # 2 back is Kolby Smith the Chiefs 5th round pick last year who picked up some of the slack in ’07 when LJ went down to injuries.  Smith ran over 100 times for 2 scores in the absence of LJ, but it seems more likely the Chiefs new 3rd round RB they selected from Texas in ’08, Jamaal Charles will likely win the 2nd spot on the depth chart, pending the pre-season performances.  Either way Larry Johnson is carrying a lot of baggage with him heading into the new campaign; he’s coming off a broken foot, a ton of carries in the past and a work in progress offensive line and quarterback situation.  So it would be smart to draft a back-up to him late in the draft or waiver wire pick up.

3.                     Marian Barber  –  Felix Jones   DAL

            Marian Barber is in line for a lot more carries going into his 3rd year in Big D.  He only had one start in his short career thus far but is in line to be the main feature back heading into 2008.  But Dallas will continue to use a 2-back system, much they did with Julius Jones.  The speedier and shiftier Felix Jones, their first round pick in ’08 and Darren McFadden’s back up at Arkansas will no doubt be seeing his share of the carries as well.  So even though many people will be chomping at the bit to snag Barber early thinking of a monster season, well … don’t get overly excited.  Yes, he may finally reach 1,000 yards as the starter, but he won’t necessarily be the “full-time starter”.  Jones will cut into his carries and Dallas will continue to use the infamous running back by committee that fantasy players hate!

4.                                                            Willie Parker — Rashard Mendenhall       PIT

Those who had Parker last year in fantasy, loved his rushing yards total, but not so much his touch down production.  He finished with 1,316 yards rushing but with only 2 total TD’s, this was after 16 total touch downs the year before!  The Week 16 didn’t help his stock much as Pittsburgh went on to draft a first round running back with their first pick of the 2008 Draft.  So now Pittsburgh may have a running back committee situation as well as the stalky Mendenhall will command more of the goal-line carries for the black and gold.  So those who take a chance on drafting “Fast” Willie Parker, you may want to decrease the risky chance of hurting your team, by playing it safe and drafting Mendenhall later in the draft.

5.                     Maurice Jones-Drew – Fred Taylor      JAX     

            This may be the most popular hand-cuff pick, because both running backs are used a lot on the offense.  Taylor gets the bulk of the carries as he had 223 attempts to Jones’s 167, but Jones-Drew gets more of the looks as a reception RB with 40 catches to Taylor ’s 9.  Many thought last year was the year the Jags turn the ball over to Jones-Drew full-time, but Taylor   isn’t ready to hand over the reigns just yet.  Now into his early 30’s, he seems to be getting better with age.  His break through performance last year earned him to his first Pro Bowl appearance in his 10 year career despite rushing for over 1,000 yards in 6 of those years before the ’08 season.  Depending on if your fantasy league counts return kick off/punt yards as points, Jones-Drew get’s even more valuable to own.  He is a bowling ball of a RB who turns a lot of small plays into huge ones.  He is being drafted before Taylor in fantasy, even though Taylor get’s the bulk of the carries in the RB by committee situation in Jacksonville .  Either way it’s a good idea to draft both not just one on draft day.

            Other Possible Hand-Cuff RB’s To Select Together:

Oakland ’s Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas and New Orleans ’ Reggie Bush and who ever is named the backup …

            You also want to keep in mind not to hand-cuff all your running backs.  Some experts say if you draft Tomlinson to also draft his back up, (once Michael Turner) now either Jacob Hester or Darren Sproles, but honestly that almost seems like a pointless pick.  If the freak chance that LT gets hurt for a significant amount of time or anything along those lines, then that’s just bad luck, because you don’t need to waste a pick on one of his backups. 

            As mentioned before, it is a good thing to take note if your fantasy league gives points for kick return/punt return special teams yards and touch downs.  If so then players such as Devin Hester, Maurice Jones-Drew and Joshua Cribbs should be targeted as they receiver an extra boost in value.  Most fantasy drafts don’t award points for special team’s plays, so pay special attention to that. 

            Besides hand-cuffing RB’s in your draft, a small notion that many fantasy players forget about is when and what Team Defense to Draft.  But a huge factor goes into which Defense to pick.  You should know when exactly the playoffs and fantasy super bowl begin (this is of course assuming you make it that far).  For the sake of these examples and tips, let’s say your fantasy playoffs begin in Week 15 and the Super Bowl is Week 16 of the NFL Season.  In the fantasy leagues I am in, both are an 8 team league, with 4 making the playoffs.  Week 15 stars the playoffs and the final 2 teams head to face off in the fantasy super bowl in Week 16 of the NFL Season.  With this in mind, here are some helpful tips to use when drafting your fantasy Defense of choice:

(remember these stats and predictions, are assuming last year’s teams will perform similar this year.  It is hard to predict Defensive math-ups because you’re going soley off of last years performances, and the teams who were poor on offense could drastically improve …)

                         Top Defenses’ that have a lot of upside in terms of scheduling:

1-                                         Minnesota Vikings are becoming a Defense of choice by many and are ranked number 1 according to Yahoo of all the 32 Team Defense’s.  By adding pash rushing machine Jared Allen they improve the already stingiest run Defense (ranked #1) in the league.  However they were ranked dead last (#32) in defending the pass.  Either way Minnesota faces Chicago and Detroit in Weeks 13-14 and Atlanta in Week 16 making them have one of the easiest offenses to defend against late in the season, when it counts the most!

2-                                         San Diego Chargers may even have an easier end to the schedule as they face Atlanta , Oakland , Kansas City and Tampa Bay from Weeks 13-16.  San Diego could definitely help take your fantasy team to the promise land as the easy schedule is right in time for fantasy’s playoffs and super bowl.  Their stout Defense which includes ball-hawking corner back Antonio Cromartie and bull-rushing line backer Shawne Merriman, will no doubt help to put your fantasy team over the top late in the season.

3-                                         New England Patriots have the easiest 2008 schedule in football and does that really seem fair?  They get to play the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphin’s offense twice a year.  Yes their an aging Defense, yes they don’t have any shut down corner backs on the roster now heading into ’08, but just look at the early stages of the season.  Within the first 5 weeks of the season (excluding the bye week) the Pats will face Kansas City , New York Jets, Miami and San Francisco .  So New England could have your fantasy team off to a fast start!

4-                                         Seattle Seahawks have a favorable ending to the schedule which could play great dividends on your fantasy season.  The ending weeks from 15-16, they get to play St. Louis and the New York Jets; both of which offenses’ were suspect last year.  Seattle also has the infamous 12th man at their home games.  They have one of the loudest fan bases in the NFL which make them always a threat while playing at home.  The middle of their schedule is pretty up and down but beware in Weeks 13-14 they play Dallas and then New England back to back.

** My Sleeper Defense to take a chance on is the Buffalo Bills, who have a really easy schedule to end the year who play Kansas City , San Francisco , Miami and Denver from Weeks 12-16.

Some Defenses That You May Want To Stay Away From:

·                                Pittsburgh – who has a very tough schedule in ’08.  They have to face Indy, San Diego , Cincinnati , New England and Dallas from Weeks 10-14.  The final fantasy weeks do get a little easier as they face Baltimore and Tennessee ’s suspect offense in Weeks 14-15.

Also any team in the NFC East or AFC North will have hard matchups … Baltimore , New York Giants and Dallas all have mediocre/ somewhat tough match-ups.

More Fantasy Tips – Wait on that Kicker!

Probably the single most important rule is DO NOT DRAFTA KICKER TOO EARLY!  In fact just wait till the last round to even snag one.  Who knew rookie kicker Nick Folk would be the best kicker in football and make the Pro Bowl?  Who knew Rob Bironas would break the NFL record for most field goals in a game (8)?  Another rookie kicker, Mason Crosby who was the first kicker taken in the ’07 draft, also performed over expectations even in the frigid weather of Green Bay , Wisconsin .  In 06’ it was the same story, as Robbie Gould came out of no where in the harsh inclement of Chicago and kicked his way to the Super Bowl. 

Now you always get people who run out and select a kicker way too early than they should.  Whether it’s stretching to get Adam Vinatieri, Neil Rackers or I even remember as far back as when Jay Feely was ranked the number one kicker to draft in fantasy back around 2002, but then failed to stay consistent.  Rackers who had a excellent 2005 scoring 140 points and nailing 6 of 7 FG’s from 50+ yards.  However one year later Rackers only hit 1 out of 7 FG’s from 50+ yards and his totals took a major dip.

The point is you never know who is going to come out as a star kicker or a sleeper kicker so the rule of thumb is just sit back and wait on selecting one.  You could do so much better by selecting an important role/reserve player like a back up quarterback, running back, wide receiver or tight end rather than wasting it on a kicker that may or may not have a good year. 

So be prepared when going into a fantasy season.  Know what categories award points, know when and when not to hand-cuff certain players, study team defenses and never draft a kicker until the last round!  It’s the little things that could set you apart from the best and the rest …