ProFootballCentral.com

By PFC Writer Daniel Johns

            Every year a few names raise some pretty big “red flags” heading into the season.  Whether these players are injured, disgruntled or will have to share time you need to be aware of all these scenarios heading in your fantasy league. 

 Most fantasy people just go ahead and pick the best available name on the board thinking they made a huge steal late in the draft; well this may be so but chances are that steal could turn into a huge problem and possibly derail your chances at a championship.  Case and point, my QB’s last year were Jake Delhomme, Matt Leinart and Phillip Rivers. 

Now I know you can’t predict who will get injured, but the injury bug basically wiped out all of my QB’s last year.  That’s why QB’s like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Matt Hasselbeck are so valuable to own, not just for their big numbers but they all have not missed any significant amount of time due to an injury.  In fact Peyton has played in every game since he was drafted back in 1998, over 8 years a go!

            For now, here is the list of players you’ll want to avoid for various reasons..  No mater how big of a name a player is you have to be smart when drafting your fantasy team.  All these players have no doubt talent and can ball with the best of them, but are definite “red flags” heading into the season (and your
fantasy draft).

            Fantasy Red Flags in 2008

RB’s

Carnell “Cadillac” Williams              Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            Can we even call him that nickname anymore?  I remember how hyped up I was for him in his rookie year and I’m not even a Buccs fan.  Since then his production has steadily dropped off more and more each other, much like his teammate Michael Clayton for that reason.  Either way the “Cadillac” has been pulling into the repair shop for mantience work the past two years, and projected to be his third in a row this year.  Tampa Bay seem to have but lost all hope in the former 5th overall pick, as they signed former Bucc Warrick Dunn to the backfield to already join, upstart surprise RB of last year Earnest Graham, who was my late waiver wire pick up in fantasy last year, and paid great dividends to my success.  Too bad Grahams production won’t pay any dividends to Williams anytime soon.  Still Williams should be penciled in as the starter come preseason, but how long will that last?  He is one injury away from heading down the depth chart completely and may have to find himself a new change of scenery, which sucks because how can you beat Florida beaches?  Either way Tampa has three running backs who all can play in this league, so don’t expect anything more than 600 yards and 4 TD’s.

Willie Parker              Pittsburgh Steelers

            This is actually one of my favorite running backs in the league.  How can you not like an undrafted rookie free agent out of the University of North Carolina , who excels way past prediction.  Unfortunately for me he had his breaking away party against my favorite team, the Tennessee Titans back in his first start, week 1 of the 2005 season; where “Fast Willie” was born after rushing for 161 yards and a TD.  Then in 2006 Willie Parker proved he wasn’t a fluke and finished with 16 total touchdowns!  However, last year Willie was more known as a yardage back than a touchdown machine finishing with 1,316 yards and only 2 total TD’s.  This now does not bold well that Pittsburgh drafted rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall with their first round draft pick.  Parker’s value now begins a downward spiral as Mendenhall is a lot bigger of a back than the “fast and agile” Parker.  Therefore, even less goal line carries can be expected for Parker in this two-headed monster RB situation.  He still is a 5th round draft pick in fantasy, but let someone else take the chance on him.

Rudi Johnson                         Cincinnati Bengals

            I can guarantee you this won’t be the “only red flag” player I will list in a Bengal uniform.  He once was a top 5 fantasy back; in fact it was not that long ago.  However, now his value significantly takes a Shaun Alexander-like plunge into the deep murky waters.  He had an ACL injury back in week 3 and was never himself after that.  The once heir apparent over the once most popular Bengal of all time, Corey Dillon, now it seems as if Rudi Johnson himself will need an heir apparent soon enough.  Will that man for the job be injury prone former 1st round pick Chris Perry or the man who took most of the reps once Johnson was injured, Kenny Watson?  Either way Johnson will be 29 and should have a few good years of production left and is no doubt the starter until he can’t go any longer, but the Bengals should have him on a short leash and as soon as he underachieves or can’t get the job done that might spell the end of Rudi Johnson being a fantasy contributor.

Laurence Maroney                New England Patriots

            Well this is simple the Patriots are a pass first, second and even third team.  They rarely run nowadays and even when they did, you never know who will carry the ball for them?  Maroney seems to be the logical first choice, but sprinkled in will be Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, Heath Evans and heck even Kyle Eckel who had two goal line carries last year?!  Plus knowing Bill Billichek that’s not even counting the possibility of LB Mike Vrbael running a few times down near the goal line.  Bottom line is Maroney is the clear cut starter, he is a former first round pick with tons of potential but he’s on the wrong team in terms of production.  I picked him up last year in my fantasy draft, before anyone knew that Brady and Moss would go nuts as much as they did, resulting in Maroney being dropped by not only me, but picked up and dropped by two other fantasy teams as well.  Even still, he should be around a 6 to 7 TD guy with just under 1,000 yards rushing give or take.  But for me, he is going to be hit or miss in that offense and should be a bench player on a fantasy team if anything.

·        Other possible “Red Flag” RB’s include: NO Deuce McAllister, NYJ Thomas Jones and CAR DeAngelo Williams

WR’s

Chad Johnson             Cincinnati Bengals

            The stubborn Johnson has threatened to sit out the season and or play in the Arena Football League (AFL) if he wasn’t traded.  Now he does a 360 degree turn once he and his agent Drew Rosenhaus realize Marvin Lewis and management has no intentions of trading him.  Now all of the sudden Ocho-Cinco, 7-11 what ever persona you want to call him, has agreed to come back to training camp and play for Cincy.  Then he add’s more drama than a 10 year old school girl with saying he has undisclosed injuries and refuses to train at mini-camp, let alone even tie his cleats!  This has “red flag” written all over it heading into the 2008 season.  One season removed from Ocho-Cinco labeling it as his funnest season yet, well that didn’t quite turn out the way he had planned.  He and QB Carson Palmer were at each other’s throats on the sidelines bickering and finger pointing.

All the while, TJ Whose-Your-Momma (Houshmandzadeh) is quietly becoming the Bengals number 1 option.  Well lets not get carried away, Chad Johnson is a superstar, maybe a little to premature to call him a Hall Of Famer just quite yet, but none-the-less he is in the top 5 hands down as the best receiver in the game.  But let’s call it as it is, he is drama and commands all the attention, whether positive or negative.  In fantasy land, his sidekick Houshmandzadeh (no spell check available for this one), should be the safer choice to draft.  In fact the past two seasons (2006-2007) T.J. has had more catches and more TD’s than Johnson.  For the most part T.J. has remained somewhat quiet while Johnson has been causing all the drama, which possibly translates into Palmer possibly giving even more looks at T.J. which could be in line to be his new favorite target in Cincy.  Furthermore, it’s no surprise T.J. is being drafted higher than Johnson for the first time in their fantasy careers; this could mean a changing of times in Cincinnati . 

Deion Branch                         Seattle Seahawks

            Well the bad news here is the problem of his lingering injury heading into the new campaign.  Branch injured his ACL during Seattle ’s post-season lost in Green Bay .  Now there isn’t a timetable for his return date but he will miss the off-season and mini-camp dates and therefore probably wouldn’t make a return to the field until the middle to late end of the season, and it’s probably looking more like the latter.  As mentioned prior, in my “fantasy sleepers” article, Nate Burelson will be the key Seahawk to watch.  Don’t count out Bobby Engram trying to pick up and where he left off after having quietly put up career year numbers last year.  Deion Branch was once a semi-dominate WR but now heading into the season at age 29 and a torn ACL things don’t look as promising for go-to wide receiver.  Maybe he is worth a late season pick up off the free agent wire, especially those fantasy teams out there in post season contention, but other than that Branch isn’t worth the risk at this point.. 

Marvin Harrison                                Indianapolis Colts

            Man o man, even at his age, you still don’t expect him to be a player to shy away from, come fantasy time.  Heading into the season at the tender age of 36, Marvin Harrison has seen himself in a bizarre set of circumstances on his level.  With all the rare off-season issues surrounding him outside of football, combined with the injuries he had to endure last year, this looks like it could be the end of the wagon for Harrison .  He has had a promising career and no doubt a sure ballot hall of famer, but his best days are not officially behind him.  Peyton Manning’s favorite target looks to just about be done, which is why owing him on your fantasy team for the first time will be too much of a risk.  Reggie Wayne should no doubt be handed the reigns as the go-to WR in Indy, and upstart Anthony Gonzalez should be a capable number 2 WR if not this year than the next.  If Harrison falls a ways down in your fantasy draft, then I would definitely at least give him a look and maybe, just maybe you have yourself one helluva steal, if he does in fact put up solid numbers heading into his 13th season.

  Harrison as no doubt helped win a lot of fantasy teams in the past and because of him being such a big name player, he will be drafted, it’s just a matter of when?  Let someone else take the risk of snagging him early if need be, but if he does somehow fall deep into the later rounds then snatch him up but no earlier than your 3rd fantasy receiver. 

The Green Bay Packers WR’s

            Namely Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.  Well I had to add a “shocker” in here somewhere and this is it.  Jennings is a beast and Driver is mr. reliable, but that was when Brett Favre was in town.  It’s nothing against the new guy, Aaron Rodgers (because I do have him picked as one of the top fantasy sleepers this year), but it will take time for chemistry to gel.  Green Bay might be running the ball a tad bit more, not only because of having a new QB but with the sudden output of RB Ryan Grant.  There’s no doubt that Jennings can have another solid year and that Driver can be mr. reliable and remain the possession receiver of the group, but will they put up numbers like when # 4 was in town?  Probably not.  That’s why I will let someone else take Jennings high in the draft, and I can use my fantasy pick on a safer choice.  Jennings was a TD machine in Green Bay last year and Driver has caught a ton of balls since 2004, but that was all with Favre.  Jennings still could remain the deep threat of the team but don’t expect 12 TD’s again, 6-8 however will be do-able and maybe 50 catches. 

But you just never know with a new QB at the helm, how long it will take him to gel with his targets.  So when drafting Jennings, Driver or even making a late FA pick up with James Jones, Ruvell Martin and or Jordy Nelson, just remember to not expect sudden results like the Packers offense of 2007..

·        Other possible “Red Flag” WR’s include: WSH Santana Moss, OAK Javon Walker, DEN Darrell Jackson and DAL Terry Glenn

QB’s

Donovan McNabb                 Philadelphia Eagles

            McNabb always seems to be a lock to be a “red flag” fantasy candidate because of the injuries.  When healthy he’s one of the top 7 best quarterbacks in the league, the only problem is, he can’t seem to remain healthy.  The best player on the Eagles squad is RB Brain Westbrook who is the playmaker of the offense.  The fact is that McNabb need’s more than Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown at WR.  His TE L.J. Smith has been inconsistent at best.  Even though Andy Reid and company never seem to surround McNabb with many other playmakers on offense beside Westbrook and himself, he still finds ways to be productive.  But he’s never going to be a fantasy beast with what’s around him, thus, making him a 2nd tier level type of fantasy QB.  McNabb is worth a shot at your 2nd string fantasy QB or even a bench third QB on your team, but if you wait until later in the draft and end up having to take McNabb as your number 1 QB option, beware!

Matt Lenairt                          Arizona Cardinals

            Well Arizona certainly has done a good job getting playmakers on offense in the desert.  Lenairt has RB Edgerrin James and WR’s Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at his disposal, only problem is can Matty pull it together not only on the field but in the off-season (party scene).  Wait that’s not his only problem … there’s always that crafty veteran QB Kurt Warner.  Warner had a very solid season in replace of the young south paw last year and there could be another rotation pattern ahead.  Coach Ken Whisenhunt loved to rotate both quarterbacks in and out of games; especially late in the games where Warner seemed to be the better man to lead infamous “2 minute offseason” early in the year, but once Lenairt broke his collarbone the complete job was handed over to Warner.  Lenairt certainly has the tools around him and the ability himself to succeed at the next level, but so far he hasn’t quite lived up to it.  Yes, he was still learning the offense with a new coach before he got injured early on in the season, but not going into his 3rd full season in the pro’s it’s time Lenairt shows he has what it takes to succeed in the NFL as a top QB.  As of now it wouldn’t be all that surprising that Warner has the edge heading into the season which means Lenairt may have to fight for his job back in the preseason and not just be handed it.  So take cautious of this and I wouldn’t even think to draft him until 2009 when Kurt Warner gets just that much older.

Vince Young                           Tennessee Titans

            This pains me the most to add VY to this list, as I am the PFC Titan’s Writer and Houston Oiler/Tennessee Titan fan since 1994.  But this has to be impartial and let’s face it Vince Young was not fantasy worthy what-so-ever in 2007.  He will in fact continue to have fantasy value as he virtually becomes the next Michael Vick (so-to-speak).  In not even 2 full years as the starting QB, VY has nearly 1,000 yards rushing and 10 rushing TD’s to show for.  But much like the man who topped this list as the “red flag” QB, Donovan McNabb, Tennessee doesn’t have a fantasy crop of WR’s worth throwing to.  In fact Vince Young’s best playmaking ability player outside himself is their back up running back they drafted this year in the first round, Chris Johnson.  Other than that, their WR crop is mediocre at best and lacks any real playmaking ability.  Young had definitely hit his sophomore slump to say the least, after much hype heading into the fantasy season last year for himself, but then only tossing 9 TD’s (the least of any opening day QB and full time starter of last year). 

The Titans went out and brought in former Pro Bow TE Alge Crumpler as his security blanket down the middle, but fact is unless first round bust Mike Williams get’s it together, or Roydell Williams, Justin Gage, Brandon Jones and/or Justin McCareins steps it up, than Vince might find himself in the low 10-12 TD range once again.  But because of his playmaking abilities and running capabilities, VY is worth at least a backup role in fantasy.

Marc Bulger                           St. Louis Rams

            Well he was mine and a lot of other people’s number one sleeper choice heading into fantasy season last year.  He’s coming off a year in which he signed a 6 year deal contract in the off season at $65 making him the highest paid player in franchise history , however having a dreadful year, full of injuries to his offensive line, his star RB and himself to go with it.  2007 will quickly be a season to forget by Rams fans, as Bulger looks to make a comeback this year.  It’s a fresh new start, but are the Rams up to the task?  They lost long time vet WR Isaac Bruce to rival San Francisco , their offensive line was absolutely beat up last year as was their star player RB Steven Jackson who looks to have a bounce back year as well.  The numbers should add up to a much better year then the previous, but facts are that this is another high risk high reward pick.  You’d be much better off letting someone else take the chance on drafting Bulger, and I for one was biting at the chops to take him in my last year’s draft, which I did in the 2nd round (he then was on the FA list in my league by mid-season).  Look for a bounce back year for not only he but the Rams, even so it is a major risk to draft him as your fantasy QB.
           
·        Other possible “Red Flag” QB’s include: CAR Jake Delhomme, DET Jon Kitna and NYJ Chad Pennington

TE’s

Jeremy Shockey                    New York Giants

            He still should be considered a top tier fantasy TE and still has the potential to be one of the best TE’s in the NFL period, but he continues to hurt himself.  Well not literally, until last year when he broke his fibula and the Giants still went on to win a Super Bowl without him.  Then late in the season and in the Super Bowl upset win over New England, the world saw the emergence of backup TE and 5th round pick, 6’6 Kevin Boss.  Boss seemed more than capable of being a reliable-worthy TE who made some big catches when the Giants needed them most.  To go along with those circumstances, there of course was all the drama in the off-season that New York wouldn’t even bring Shockey back.  Well then finally did bring him up, and will get his old job back as the starting TE, but even so, let someone else take the risk on drafting him in fantasy this year.  I would wait this year off with him and see how things play themselves out.  If he and Eli Manning form chemistry again and Shockey get’s his act together then why not draft him in 2009.  As for this year?  Not worth the risk with other fantasy TE’s starting to emerge.
           
L.J. Smith                               Philadelphia Eagles

            Heading into his contract year, where most players save their break out year for, L..J. had a career low 22 receptions to go with 1 TE and groin and knee injuries throughout the season.  Most fantasy owners expected big things from Smith in Philly last year and were no doubt disappointed with the results.  However, Smith still figures to be McNabb’s main red zone target but will he hold up with injuries and inconsistent play?  L.J. Smith has the potential to be a big time playmaking TE in the league but as of now he still remains a high risk, high reward player in fantasy.

·        Other possible “Red Flag” TE’s include: NO Eric Johnson, ST.L. Randy McMichael and SF Vernon Davis

Well that does it for the “Red Flag” players, or players you’ll want to avoid and/or be cautious with, when drafting your fantasy team this year.  In the next “Fantasy Football Outlook” article, well take a look at the “studs you’ll want to draft” and when to draft them.  Tomlinson vs Peterson, Brady vs Manning and Moss vs Owens … take your pick.